http://voltq.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/ForecastingPenetration-ofElectric2W_28-06.pdf
From Inc42:
Government think tank NITI Aayog has said that the shift to electric mobility, particularly in the two-wheeler segment, may happen faster than anticipated.
In an ‘optimistic scenario’, there will be 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country by the financial year 2026-27 (FY27), a report released by NITI Aayog and Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council (TIFAC), titled ‘Forecasting Penetration Of Electric Two-Wheelers In India: A Bottom-Up Analysis’, on June 28 said.
It also predicted a penetration of 72% in a ‘technology driven scenario’ where current initiatives such as subsidies are withdrawn by 2024.
Using an agent-based tool jointly developed by TIFAC and NITI Aayog, eight separate scenarios were developed for analysing the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country. These scenarios were constructed on the basis of three major factors – demand incentives, cost of battery and vehicle performance in terms of both range and power.
The report also called for instituting regulatory norms to govern the EV space in future. “At a certain point of time in future, there may be an appropriate ecosystem for enforcement of a regulation towards electric mobility or other clean transport options. But as the present analysis shows, there are plenty of opportunities for accelerating adoption of electric vehicles through technological improvements and other interventions,” it said. “